What would happen if China attacked India || A detailed analysis!

The relations between India and China have always been sour. As a matter of fact, Pakistan and China seem to be the only the countries that are actually a threat to India. Otherwise India has good relations with almost all the countries in the world. In this article, we are doing an analysis of a hypothetical situation as to what would happen if China attacks India in the near future.

First of all, let’s analyze the War mentality of both the nations. Ancient cultures with thousands of years of maturity has shaped their foreign and defense policies.
According to Sun Tzu, the great Chinese general of ancient China:
"Appear weak when you are strong and strong when you are weak. The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fightingAll warfare is based on deception. Hence, when we are able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must appear inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away."
This is how Chinese war mentality works.
Now, according to Chanakya, who holds special place in Indian diplomacy (Arthashastra) and behavior in conflicts are very essence of India.
"A person should not be too honest. Straight trees are cut first and honest people are screwed first.Do not reveal what you have thought upon doing, but by wise council keep it secret being determined to carry it unto execution. Saam, Daam, dand, bhed"Saam: to advise and askDaam: to offer and buyDand: to punishBhed: exploiting the secrets
This is how Indian war mentality works.
This is an assumption as to what will happen if China attacks India:
  • Indian military will go on full alert, will deploy troops, tanks and missiles closer to Chinese border in AP, Aksai chin and Ladakh region. There will be armored movement along border by both sides.
  • Chinese air force will launch airstrikes against our troops along McMahon line- AP/Aksai chin area.
  • A contingent of Chinese fleets would deploy to IOR to confront Indian navy which may attempt to block Chinese Oil supplies from entering Strait of Malacca.


   


  • Militaries of US, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam and South Korea will go on high alert. If Chinese missiles hit Japan or south korea, then both with US will retaliate in kind.


  • Russia would have three options:
      1. If it sides India: China will get surrounded from all possible sides. Not desirable for China.
      2. If it sides China: India will ally with Japan, Vietnam, Phillipines and South korea with support of US military. 
      3. If remains neutral: It will undermine China as it has pending border issues with China and is quite aware that if china defeats India, Russia itself could be the future target. Most possible way for Russia to choose.
    • US military will go on full alert in Japan, South Korea, Persian gulf, Guam and Diego Garcia. Spy satellites will monitor nuclear activities in China, India , North Korea , Russia and Pakistan. US will support India by blockading the Strait of Malacca with it’s aircraft carriers, submarines and destroyers.




    • So, now China would be combatting US ad India in IOR; US, Japan and South korea in Pacific-SCS and ECS region.
    • News media around the world will broadcast the conflict. Protest will be there to end the war.


    • Stock markets around the world will fall hard as Indian ocean and Strait of Malacca, the busiest oil shipping route is blocked off. Gold prices will skyrocket, Chinese and American currency will fall hard and inflation will increase.


    • UN security council will convene an emergency session. Russia will lead the efforts to end the war. US may threaten weapon supplies to Taiwan and support it’s declaration of Independence.




    • European NATO members will not intervene as they have learned lessons from WW I&II.
    • As the war continues, China will target Indian cities and troops, US targets in IOR & the Pacific, US installations in Japan. India and US will target Chinese cities also.
    • Pakistan will join China hoping to take over Kashmir finally.
    • Since, China facing India, US and other rivals and neutral Russia; China and Pak may be tempted to use Nuclear weapons. If this happens, then God saves humanity. US, Russia, France and UK will respond.
Now, let’s analyze consequences.
Consequences (with Nuclear weapons):
    • India’s nuclear weapons will destroy Pak.
    • 1/3rd of China mainly in west will vanish.
    • New Delhi, Seoul, Beijing, and Tokyo destroyed.
    • Total casualty: Hundred million dead.
Consequences (without Nukes):
    • Chinese economy will suffer, revolt will start in Tibet and Hongkong.
    • Indian economy will suffer worse than China.
    • PLA naval strength will be significantly diminished and so would be it’s claims in SCS and ECS.
    • US will emerge as victorious. No China to challenge them, militarily or economically in long run.
This was all about what will happen if a full-scale war broke out.
Now, let’s see why can’t China attack India?
Himalaya is world's highest mountain range and 90% of Chinese arsenal is useless in that theater. It needs 9:1 supremacy to dislodge an enemy in mountainous terrain.
Chinese deployment: Far from China having that sort of military supremacy, it is practically impotent in mountain warfare with it having 3 acclimatized brigades with two Squadrons of J10/11 deployed in Tibet. One division in the Aksai chin front and one Squadron of J10/11 fighters. That’s it.
India’s deployment w.r.t china: On the Northeast from India has 4 corps of Mountain infantry, 8 air bases, 7 Advanced landing grounds mere 20km from the LAC. On the northern side, one mountain corps, one infantry corps, 4 air bases and 5 advanced landing ground exclusively for Chinese front.
Mountain warfare is fought and won by infantry and you could not rush soldiers directly from plains as they would die of vomiting their guts, if rushed in without acclimatizing. PLA is mostly composed of Hans who have lived in the plains for centuries. Acclimating is one thing, to be war fighting fit in those heights, genetics and evolution come into play.
We have Dogras, Kumaoni, Ladakhi, Nagas and Gurkhas. Native of the mountains, naturally acclimated to heights as a gift of nature.
The new light tank of China is a desperate measure from their part which is to be used defensively, if India break through Himalaya and marches onto Lhasa.
There is one major Rail link and 3 major roads from China into Tibet which would be taken out within first few hours of a conflict. It would cut Chinese armies deployed against India off their supplies, while Indian Army supply lines are very short and local.
Eastern sector in Arunachal. No country for tanks or mechanized vehicles.
We have 1 brahmos regiment already deployed in Arunachal with 100 missiles targeting mainly supply depots and rail/road links into Tibet. Another regiment will be raised with Mountain Strike Corps. 3 more brahmos regiments with ~240-300 missiles target Pakistan in our 3 strike corps.
Our target with Brahmos is simple, we destroy the gas pipeline from the mainland that supplies fuel for vehicles/aircraft in Tibet and we destroy the 2-3 main road and rail links that connect Tibet with Xinjiang and mainland china. This can be done quickly and easily and repeated several times even if repaired. Once these road/rail links are destroyed and fuel is gone it doesn't matter how many soldiers you have in Tibet, they will starve. No oil, no ammo, no reinforcements. You can see the main road/rail links in the above map.
On top of it, China has not fought a shooting war since 1979 & best practice its conscript army has got has been shooting at cardboard targets, while thanks to Pakistan army and their jihadis, every Indian soldier has battle experience.
China has bad quality knockoff planes, of which only few could be deployed on bases in Tibet and Chengdu from where they could reach India and even they could not take off from Tibet with full load as rarefied air of Tibet reduces thrust of aircrafts. On top of it, only J-11D in PLAAF has OBOG system, while all frontline Indian planes have OBOG system, thus reducing high altitude fighting capability of PLAAF even further.
An important point to note here is that in mountain warfare, defenders have massive advantage. While China does not have military strength to defeat us in mountain warfare, we also could not mount deep invasion into Tibet as logistic problem would be turned on its head. Our forces would come in range of PLAAF flying from airfields in mainland China (from where they could fly with full load).
In Navy, Pakistan is a bigger challenger of Indian Navy in Indian ocean than PLAN. IN could block Oil supplies of China from Middle East easily. Indian navy will choke Strait of Malacca China’s lifeline and China has to contend with India’s unsinkable aircraft carrier: the Andaman and Nicobar Islands located close to the choke point of Malacca Strait.
The truth with China is that, while it is a decent military power, it is not as strong as people make it out to be, and it depends on propaganda and intimidation to achieve its objective. For Ex: Its DF-21 ASBM which it has tested on an stationary target, but never gathered enough courage to test on a moving target. The reason for this is that it knows that an ASBM could not hit a moving target due to some shortcoming that originate from basic Physics. Similarly, in mountainous regions, it is not strong enough to aggress against India.
The actual situation on the ground rather than paper strength.
Terrain issue was there even in 1962. How did China win?
Nehru was at helm. We would have lost J&K to Pakistan, had Pakistan attacked India when he was PM. Had we not lost to China in 1962, we would have lost to Pakistan in 1965. Nehru was follower of school of thought which believed that armies are not good for anything except march pasts and had disbanded major portions of WWII army and had retooled armament factories to produce coffee percolators. Krishna Menon had politicized army and army leadership in 1962 was comparable to that of state police. Menon was a communist, and like his idol Stalin fascinated with purges and interfering in promotions. It was 1962 defeat which stopped Indian Armed forces slide to mediocrity. When Nehru decided to send army to front after getting humiliated in parliament for Chinese incursions, it was done in form of establishing small outposts, separated from each other in name of "forward policy". China outnumbered IA 8:1 in Himalayan theater and had much better weapons and experience. There is Henderson-Brooks report on this issue. Only one volume is public.
Mohd. Kamran Ali
intern@thradical.in

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The Radical - Information That Matters: What would happen if China attacked India || A detailed analysis!
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